Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.     

从同化到自闭——论湛若水对阳明后学的因应

厘清湛若水与王阳明及阳明后学的关系,对把握明代学术史十分重要.湛、王二人虽称好友,但讲学不契,互致批评.阳明逝后,湛若水把批评矛头指向其后学,尔后迫于形势,一改直接批评的做法,向阳明后学发出了"大同"号召,然实质是基于"吾道兼全"的信念企图强人同己,其得不到阳明学者响应几乎是注定的.出于强烈的门户意识,湛若水对阳明后学的讲学活动满怀戒备,不仅本人谢绝参加,还示意门人不可前往.在阳明后学活跃的嘉靖中后期,湛若水的这种因应使他不可避免地走向思想学术界的边缘.晚年甘泉频出"撤座"、"闭口"之词,并非他故作矫情,而是他遭遇讲学危机真实心态的反映.     

区块链技术下智能合约之于合同的新诠释

应用于交易领域的智能合约融入区块链技术,以代码形式表现,可实现合同履行的自动化和不可逆,超越了传统意义上的合同模式.自助行为说、代理说将智能合约视为对合同过程的外部增强,是侧面功能的法律阐释,并未完全捕捉到实质.智能合约并不一定跨越整个合同过程,也可仅是合同过程某个方面或某个阶段.法律意义上的智能合约不是合同新类型,而是合同关系形式的新发展,即当事人缔结和履行合同的新形式,合同性质未发生实质变化.智能合约满足特定要件构成特殊的书面形式,具有"书面形式+自动履行"功能的特质.民事主体通过智能合约形式订立合同应遵守《民法典》等现行法律的具体规则,以保证合同依法成立与生效.智能合约不等同于具有法律效力的合同,认定其效力应结合智能合约应用中的具体问题展开具体分析.从立法上确认智能合约,在符合国家现有法律、政策基础上编写和应用,实现形式的合法化、内容的规范化是该技术谋求长远发展的保障.技术起步的现阶段,纸质合同、一般电子合同与智能合约在不同方面发挥协作作用,会在未来一段时间内成为民事交往、商业交易的主要状态.     

“后农业社会”:一个中国可能率先进入的发展模式

"后农业社会"概念关乎的是人类社会未来发展的新思考,其重要程度不亚于"后工业社会"的概念,主要是指围绕着知识和创意组织起来的文化性生态经济,其关键集团是科学家、智能化工程师、网络专家、文艺工作者与媒体人。这是一个由更加庞大的科学技术知识分子和人文社科知识分子相结合所组成的队伍,其中轴原理是在理论知识的基础上推行创意优先,从而形成一个高度生态化和知识化的社会发展模式。这一模式提出的背景与科学家提出的"人类世"有所关联,如果这一概念能够成立,将会成为当下最为重要的人文社会科学重要概念之一。它不仅是一个理论上的概念,还是一个可以实践的社会行为,是一种新的发展模式,能够为解决人类目前所面临的生态危机和文化危机带来一个探索和讨论的新空间,或许能够成为东方人对世界未来发展的重要理论贡献。     

An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards

This article proposes a novel mathematical optimization framework for the identification of the vulnerabilities of electric power infrastructure systems (which is a paramount example of critical infrastructure) due to natural hazards. In this framework, the potential impacts of a specific natural hazard on an infrastructure are first evaluated in terms of failure and recovery probabilities of system components. Then, these are fed into a bi‐level attacker–defender interdiction model to determine the critical components whose failures lead to the largest system functionality loss. The proposed framework bridges the gap between the difficulties of accurately predicting the hazard information in classical probability‐based analyses and the over conservatism of the pure attacker–defender interdiction models. Mathematically, the proposed model configures a bi‐level max‐min mixed integer linear programming (MILP) that is challenging to solve. For its solution, the problem is casted into an equivalent one‐level MILP that can be solved by efficient global solvers. The approach is applied to a case study concerning the vulnerability identification of the georeferenced RTS24 test system under simulated wind storms. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for identifying critical locations under multiple hazard events and, thus, for providing a useful tool to help decisionmakers in making more‐informed prehazard preparation decisions.     

Inferences for a Partially Varying Coefficient Model With Endogenous Regressors

In this article, we propose a new class of semiparametric instrumental variable models with partially varying coefficients, in which the structural function has a partially linear form and the impact of endogenous structural variables can vary over different levels of some exogenous variables. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate both functional and constant coefficients. The consistency and asymptotic normality of these proposed estimators are established. Moreover, a generalized F-test is developed to test whether the functional coefficients are of particular parametric forms with some underlying economic intuitions, and furthermore, the limiting distribution of the proposed generalized F-test statistic under the null hypothesis is established. Finally, we illustrate the finite sample performance of our approach with simulations and two real data examples in economics.     

IPO 募资双重管制与资源配置——基于自然实验的经验证据

本文探讨我国首发市场中针对募集资金的两种管制政策的交互效应对资源配置的影响.研究结果发现,募资用途和募资额度管制的交互作用会导致募资不足,从而加大公司上市后融资约束的程度,进而引起投资不足. 2009年放开募资额度管制后,公司的融资约束得到缓解,但持有过量的超募资金又会引发过度投资.进一步研究发现,企业持有的超募资金与其长期绩效呈倒U型关系.本文的研究结论对目前处于酝酿中的IPO注册制的相关政策制定和制度设计具有参考意义.     

水平井流入控制阀控底水原理及影响因素分析

随着钻完井技术的发展，采用流入控制阀（ICD）完井技术开发底水油藏成为提高产量、降低成本的有效途径。弄清水平井ICD 控底水原理及影响因素成为利用其实现延缓底水锥进、提高油藏最终采收率的关键。在分析ICD 控水限流原理基础上，通过模拟计算，具体分析了流动剖面、环空流动、含水率等3 个影响控水效果的主要因素。分析结果表明：对于不具有高含水段的油藏，可以利用ICD 增大高渗段阻力，从而在牺牲总产液量的基础上降低产水，实现控水；ICD 所产生附加压降有效地减少了环空流动，增强了控水的稳定性，为实现长期稳油控水提供了保障；对储层物性参数分布认识出现偏差将会较大地影响ICD 的控水效果；对于存在高含水段的水平井，需要增大高含水段的附加压降，降低高含水段的产液量，才能有效实现控水。对水平井ICD 控底水原理及影响因素的分析结果为优化水平井ICD完井设计，控制底水锥进提供了技术思路。     

Social service purchasing in China: Rationale,features, and risks

As part of a broader program of market reform, China's local governments are progressing an agenda of purchasing child welfare and other social services from the nongovernment sector, primarily to expand capacity and address vast unmet need. This paper draws on current research evidence to explore the approaches to purchasing emerging in China, examining the rationale for purchasing and models of supply, competition, and regulation. While some approaches are modeled on direct service contracting, direct purchasing of social service “posts” is also used, aimed at achieving goals of professionalization alongside service expansion. Overall, the review shows purchasing is helping to rapidly expand service scale and capacity; however, regulatory strategies for managing and mitigating risks to quality and access appear lacking. This highlights the need for further scholarship aimed at developing the robust risk management strategies which are required to support high quality, sustainable provision of purchased services.     

Quick,uncertain, and delayed adults: timing,sequencing and duration of youth-adult transitions in Canada

The transition from youth to adulthood in western societies has become more prolonged and complex as traditional societal norms have lost influence. Using retrospective data from a cohort of 43-year-old Canadians surveyed in 2010 (n?=?405), we mapped the timing, sequencing, and duration of ‘first stage’ youth-adult transitions (leaving home, finishing formal education, obtaining a full-time job) and ‘second stage’ youth-adult transitions (marriage, parenthood, home ownership). Latent profile analysis identified five distinct transition profiles – norm-setters, quick adults, uncertain adults, adult students, and delayed adults – with different amounts and timing of post-secondary educational investment playing an important profile-shaping role. Although youth-adult transitions have become less standardized and more individualized, especially for first stage transitions, these transitions are still quite structured and continue to be affected by gender and family socioeconomic status.